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Daily Plays and Betting Tips from the Danny Ocean of Sports Handicapping. Click to read Coochie vs The Bookie, by DaCoochieCoo, a Substack publication with hundreds of subscribers.

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Bayern Munich vs Villareal​

Bayern Munich -470\ Villareal +900 \ O/U 3.5

Soccer YTD —- EPL/UCL ——- 39-31-14 (+15.1U)​

Some might suggest a hedge with so much riding on this game for me —- both emotionally and financially. Some might even lay the HAMMER down on Bayern Munich —— knowing that if Villareal qualifies a cash-out on the +14600 future will become instantly profitable. Covering the losses on Munich and then some. The honest truth of the matter is I’m typing this hoping I come to my sense and hedge —- but mama didn’t raise no (redacted).

So if Bookies remain resolute in not showing Unai Emery’s side the respect they’ve earned over the course of this competition —- I to will remain resolute in taking them as sizeable underdogs. Because the longer I look at this game and trust me it’s been a week of continual internal debate —- I see no reason to think the game will go drastically different this time around than last time.

Now that’s not to say I think Villareal are the better side over the course of a season, nor do I believe they should be favored. Far from it —- but the display they put on in Spain against Bayern last Tuesday wasn’t a mirage, and it’s far from a one.

Villarreal is not only a fantastic pressing team, but great at playing through pressure, which it showed in the opening leg, with Bayern only having a 31% pressure success rate. Last season under manager Hansi Flick, the Bavarians struggled in transition defense and were really bad in the first leg. That has a lot to do with the fact they played a center-back pairing of Dayot Upamecano and Lucas Hernandez, who normally don’t play alongside each other.

Bayern can get away with that against lower Bundesliga sides, but against one of the world’s best counter-pressing teams, that’s not going to work. Moreover, Villarreal is the type of team that can be successful in playing with a lead. It traditionally lines up in a 4-4-2 formation and is good defensively out of it, allowing 1.07 NPxG per match. Offensively, the Yellow Submarine is averaging 1.88 xG per 90 minutes, so it’s not like the club is playing the same style as Atlético and keeping 10 guys behind the ball.

Now the only reason I cannot sit this game comfortably is that Bayern did this skit in the round, creating very little against Salzburg before absolutely blitzing them in the second lack —— And despite my want for the Yellow Submarine to advance, I still am struggling to believe they actually will.

So I’ve said a lot, and for that, I appreciate you being my sounding board. I just can’t get away from Villareal on this one, I still believe in the Yellow Submarine, and if I die on this hill so be it. I die knowing I rode.

PLAYS

Villareal Draw No Bet (+540) (.25U)
Villareal To Advance (+223) (.25U)
Villareal +1.5 (+113) (1U)
Villareal +2 (-141) (1.5U)